Book publishing in 2017? A little tougher, a little more challenging … but still open for opportunity for those who navigate the currents.
That’s the view from Mark Coker, founder and big cheese at Smashwords, the largest independent purveyor of eBooks. And most of it at least intuitively feels about right.
Coker, and his site, work with large masses of independent authors (and I’ve been one of them). His viewpoint does come from a specific angle, and that has to be factored in; and his take focuses (logically enough) on eBooks more than print.
Some of the big-picture points he makes are clear and sound enough. In the decade since the launch of the Kindle (and very nearly that at Smashwords too, for that matter), and the slightly longer time since print on demand has taken off, the book publishing world has changed. The word “glut” – of authors, of books – has become basic, as the sheer volume of books has complicated selling for almost everyone aside from authors with a large established audience. Moreover, because eBooks never really go out of print, the total number of books available to a reader continues to grow massively. Meanwhile, the number of readers and the number of books read has continued to grow, but by nowhere near as much.
Those basic facts lay the groundwork for, and force the response from, everything else. Overall, Coker suggests, traditional publishing continues to have a small advantage on the print side, partly because it can much more easily get books into physical retail outlets. (That’s an advantage but a far smaller one than it was a few years ago.) At the same time, indies have an edge on price and flexibility; many titles from large publishers still are priced well over $10 each, while many indie prices are at a third or less of that.
The point is coming, Coker argues also, that a number of indies will opt out, and the independent side of the trade will start to see some consolidation as bargaining positions and cost efficiencies start to come to the fore.
Coker: “In 2017 we’re likely to see increased merger and acquisition activity as large publishers, retailers, distributors and larger service providers recognize an opportunity to take advantage of the glut to strengthen their indie author portfolio and grow their businesses. If you believe as I believe that indie authors are the future of publishing, then it starts to become clear that some form of consolidation is inevitable because the business opportunity to serve readers by serving authors and readers is so enormous. Last year I predicted WattPad would be acquired. I was wrong! Or I was early.”
He also has a good deal to say about Amazon and its eBook regime, especially Kindle Select and Kindle Unlimited. My gut sense that there will be less development along these fronts in the next year than Coker projects. (And he weights his predictions with the point that he makes them more by way of starting discussions than by way of hard prognosticating.) But who knows; he’s certainly close to the game.
I get the feeling of a field changing a little less rapidly than it was in the last decade.
But then, big changes do have a way of catching you by surprise.
